The Evolving Dynamics of Global Balance of Power: Interplay Between Nuclear Capabilities and Advent of AI

By Ramneet Kaur

What is Balance of Power?

Hans Morgenthau, one of the founding fathers of the realist school of geopolitics in Politics among Nations explains ‘balance of power’ as the aspiration for power on the part of several nations, each trying either to maintain or to overthrow the status quo, leading to a constellation which is called the balance of power and to policies which aim at preserving it. An example of the same would be older members of the nuclear club who aspire to maintain the status quo by coming together to advocate nuclear non-proliferation in order to prevent nuclear challengers like India and Pakistan from gaining nuclear capabilities. Moreover, since there is no supreme international authority or a strong consensus in international affairs, balance of power becomes a guiding principle.

The Relation Between Balance of Power and Nuclear Capabilities 

Though widely accepted as a guiding principle for international politics, the balance of power theory has one fundamental problem — the uncertainty of what qualifies as a balance or an imbalance as there is no particular rule to gauge a nation’s power. There are different means with which we arrive at a power structure of the world like a nation’s economic, social, political or diplomatic capital. Nations, as a result of such uncertainty try to maximise their power hoping that it will put them in the right side of the weighing scale of the intsopower balance. Particularly when a nation considers military conflict as an imminent threat to its survival due to historic reasons, it is willing to go any lengths to gain a capability that can ensure and broadcast a message to the world that an outright war with it will be very costly to everyone. This is the capability that nuclear weapons grant a nation.

Balance of Power in the Missile Age

Traditional theory postulated that for a balance of power system to operate in an anarchic society, three basic conditions must be fulfilled:

1. the main actors must be of relatively equal powers;

2. there must be a willingness to counter the dominant or rising power individually or through alliances; and

3. all states in the system must desire to maintain their independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity.

These three conditions were not fulfilled at the beginning of the 21st century. The United States is dominant without parallel in history. However, since the old world consisting of states possessing nuclear weapons continues to exist, the balance of power politics remains relevant, even if it is demonstrated by the absence of such a system. After all, balance of power theory teaches that only power can deter power, and that the antidote to nuclear weapons is an opposing array of nuclear weapons and the threat of unacceptable damage in a nuclear exchange.

Balance of Power Through Nuclear Capabilities and Emerging Technologies like AI: India’s Position 

India's nuclear capabilities, spanning short-range, intermediate-range, and intercontinental ballistic missiles, serve as a regional deterrent against Pakistan and China and a long-term deterrent against major nuclear-armed nations like the United States and Britain. India joined the nuclear deterrence framework relatively late despite early advancements in atomic research in the 1950s and 60s. Over the past five decades, Indian leaders have increasingly recognized the importance of nuclear deterrence, focusing on enhancing the sophistication and survivability of their nuclear delivery systems.

Artificial intelligence, alongside the rapid evolution of disruptive technologies, is influencing the landscape of nuclear deterrence and warfare by introducing AI-powered autonomous weapons. These advancements enable weapon systems to autonomously detect and respond to threats in real-time, bypassing traditional human decision-making processes. This capability significantly reduces the time between receiving information and taking action, altering the dynamics of military engagements. Moreover, autonomous systems operate independently, eliminating the need for human intervention, which could complicate crisis management on the battlefield. Those proficient in AI technology gain a strategic advantage due to their ability to deploy rapid and proactive military tactics.

Furthermore, AI facilitates continuous surveillance of adversaries' nuclear assets, making it challenging for states to conceal mobile missile systems and submarine-based nuclear platforms. Autonomous weapon systems, such as the Pentagon's sea-based attack swarms or "wolf-packs," exemplify efforts to detect and neutralize enemy submarines carrying nuclear payloads. These developments underscore the transformative impact of AI on military strategy and the future of nuclear deterrence.

The emergence of AI and hypersonic weapons poses significant challenges to the survivability of nuclear arsenals. Hypersonic weapons, travelling five times the speed of sound, can penetrate even the most advanced missile defence systems due to their unpredictable target trajectories and speed. When equipped with precision munitions, these weapons offer minimal reaction time for the targeted state, potentially forcing nuclear-armed nations to maintain hair-trigger or launch-on-warning readiness. Additionally, offensive cyber operations could disable an adversary's early-warning systems, command structures, communications, and critical infrastructure, leaving them vulnerable to preemptive nuclear strikes without effective retaliation. This technological shift from defensive to offensive capabilities undermines the traditional foundations of nuclear deterrence, potentially making scenarios like nuclear decapitation a real threat.

An arms race is already underway among leading countries like the US, Russia, and China in developing AI, cyber weapons, and hypersonic technologies, despite these technologies not yet being fully operational. India faces a dual challenge due to this development. Firstly, regardless of specific threats to its nuclear deterrent from these nations, participating in such a race compels India to develop similar technologies while also investing in defenses against them. This is concerning as India is still in the process of establishing a robust nuclear deterrent, with its ICBM and sea-based nuclear forces still in development.

Furthermore, India's nuclear command and control infrastructure is relatively untested, raising doubts about its reliability in decision-making. Compared to the more advanced nuclear powers like the US, Russia, and China, India lags significantly behind in R&D concerning AI, cyber capabilities, and hypersonic weapons. The absence of a unified cyber command in India further compounds these challenges. Of particular concern is China's advancements, given India faces a direct nuclear threat from them. A breakthrough by China in these technologies could potentially undermine India's nuclear deterrent and confer significant conventional and diplomatic advantages to its adversaries.

In addition to military implications, India's technological shortfall could also marginalize its influence in international diplomacy. Historically, India's delayed nuclear status led to its exclusion from the nonproliferation treaty and international regimes for decades. Therefore, acquiring these technological capabilities is crucial not only for military parity but also for enhancing India's diplomatic influence in managing global issues arising from these disruptive technologies. Indian policymakers must recognize these realities and ensure India remains competitive in this ongoing technological revolution to avoid broader repercussions beyond the nuclear realm.

Conclusion

In conclusion, the interplay between nuclear capabilities and AI-driven technologies is reshaping global balance of power dynamics. India, navigating these complexities, stands at a critical juncture. Its nuclear deterrence strategy, bolstered by a diverse missile arsenal, is now juxtaposed against the imperative to rapidly advance in AI and cyber technologies. The urgency lies not only in maintaining strategic parity but also in safeguarding against emerging threats that could undermine its deterrent capabilities and geopolitical influence.

As the global landscape continues to evolve, India's pursuit of technological advancement must be calibrated with strategic foresight, ensuring robust defense capabilities while enhancing diplomatic engagement on global platforms. The stakes are high, demanding a delicate balance between deterrence and diplomacy to navigate the uncertainties of an increasingly interconnected and technologically driven world.